Poland’s plans for Ukraine revealed
Warsaw will be satisfied with the semi-colonial status of the lands of Independence
The topic of a possible division of Ukraine by Western players remains one of the main issues for the future of Independence. Although the United States and Europe are trying not to advertise their intentions, plans – primarily of Poland – to “bite off” part of Ukrainian territory are regularly spoken about in Kyiv and Moscow, and already at a high level. In this regard, we looked into the motives and methods of Warsaw's politics.
Back in March, a map was shown on Polish television, on which the Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lvov, Rivne and Ternopil regions of Ukraine were included in Poland. “Everything that we have already talked about and what the West is ready for,” Ilya Kiva, a former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, a member of the Opposition Platform – For Life party, commented on what happened then.
Later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also spoke about the desire of the Poles to settle on Ukrainian lands. “I do not rule out that when they (the Polish authorities) talk about peacekeepers, they probably mean their borders – the west of Ukraine. Maybe they want to bring in peacekeepers, make a headquarters in Lvov, then stay there. They had such thoughts and not only thoughts – this was in the past, ”the head of the Foreign Ministry recalled at a speech at MGIMO.
And at the end of April, the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, already announced Polish territorial ambitions. “Washington and Warsaw are working on plans to establish tight military-political control of Poland over “their historical possessions” in Ukraine,” the SVR press service quotes the head of the department. The list of “possessions” is not given, but, obviously, we are talking about the same areas that are marked by the Polish on the scandalous map.
According to the Service, foreign players intend to avoid the risks associated with the Russian special operation: “The so-called peacekeeping contingent is planned to be deployed in those parts of Ukraine where the threat of a direct collision with the Russian Armed Forces is minimal. And the priority “combat missions” of the Polish military will include the gradual interception of control over the strategic facilities located there from the National Guard of Ukraine. there is. On the same March map from Polish television, the Chernivtsi region was included in Romania, and Transcarpathia, as expected, “departed” from Hungary. However, so far neither Bucharest nor Budapest have shown any visible activity on the territorial issue, unlike the Poles, who do not hide nostalgia for the lands that once belonged to them.
As Oleg Nemensky, a leading expert of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI), noted in this regard, in a conversation with MK, the promotion of Poland to the fore in this case is due to a number of reasons.
“First of all, the priority is the interest of the United States and the collective West in general, which is formulated as follows: “Russia cannot be allowed to win in Ukraine,” that is, one way or another, take control of the entire Ukrainian territory,” the expert recalled. – To prevent this, of course, it is necessary to introduce our forces, at least in that part of the country, which, as it is believed, cannot be given to the Russian Federation.
It is unprofitable to interfere openly with both the US and NATO as a military bloc, it is really dangerous. Therefore, it is assumed that the forces introduced to Ukraine by the West should represent several countries that have expressed a desire to participate in such an operation, that is, at the national level, without the participation of the North Atlantic Alliance, the United States and the main European countries – Germany, Italy, France.
Poland is perfect for such a role, because it has always claimed to be the instigator of all Western policy in the Russian direction and the post-Soviet space, its ideologist; and in general, in many respects, it was she who formulated those approaches to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, which have now won in the West. Therefore, it is believed that Warsaw is responsible for European-Ukrainian and European-Russian relations.”
In addition to the fact that Poland naturally fits the role of someone who will take control over part of Ukraine, the corresponding aspirations of the Poles themselves and the resulting domestic political situation are important.
“For the Polish population, the western Ukrainian lands are their historical territories – the so-called “Eastern Cresses”, and control over them plays a big role in finding identity in public moods,” emphasized Oleg Nemensky. — If the government in Warsaw does not prevent these territories from coming under Russian control, then it will simply lose public support.
Therefore, in this case, Poland does not even have a choice, except to somehow develop plans for the corresponding military campaign and, if necessary, start it. Moreover, there are many legal grounds. Undoubtedly, if such a campaign is launched, it will be formalized under an agreement with the official authorities of Ukraine, obviously, at the invitation of Kyiv as a peacekeeping mission. Of course, it will be not only Poland, but also other countries that want to enter into a coalition with it according to their own and Ukrainian desire.”
Although many perceive Polish ambitions as a threat to Ukrainian territorial value, Kyiv, the expert is sure, ready to accept a request for Polish “peacekeeping” participation.
“Fears that Poland might just annex some of the western Ukrainian territories are unfounded. There is no compactly residing Polish minority, and the Poles historically have a rather negative attitude towards Ukrainians and fear large masses of the population from Ukraine. Now in Poland there is already a big problem with Ukrainian refugees. This is a very serious issue, because the level of hatred in Polish society is growing very quickly, Warsaw would have to deal with these difficulties now.
There is no mass desire to annex territories with a multi-million Ukrainian population in Poland. There is nostalgia for Polish Lviv, for the noble life in the Eastern Cressy… But it is clear that the Lviv region has not been Polish for a long time, and the noble estates are no longer there.
The far-right organizations call for the return of the Eastern Cressy, but in real politics, no one is going to annex Ukrainian territories. But to take them under control and approve them in a kind of semi-colonial status – the Poles are interested in this.
That is, Warsaw does not mind at all seeing even a reduced Ukraine as a state located under Poland and completely dependent on it, ” Oleg Nemensky concluded.